Beasts in the East

Watching Jose Contreras throw a gem last night, I was reminded of what a different pitcher he had become since he was fresh off the boat with the Yankees. In the games against the Red Sox, he never, not once, looked comfortable. He always looked completely clueless. Now, he's an entirely different pitcher. He's capable of throwing all his pitches for strikes, at any count. With all his arm angles, it seemed like he had 8 or 9 different pitches working last night. I would even rate his nearly spinless forkball as the best pitch in the AL. Or at least as good a pitch as anyone else throws. (Tangential Rant: The others? Halladay's two-seamers that move all over, Mo's cutter, Johan's changeup, Kazmir's slider, and BJ Ryan's fastball, which while not overpowering, combined with his funky motion, makes it incredibly hard for the hitters to see. There should be quite a few additions to this list in the very near future. There's a whole crop of young pitchers coming up in the AL that have absolutely killer stuff. Zumaya's fastball consistently at 100+, Felix's curve that bends knees more than Prior's, Papelbon's fastball that nips corners, Liriano's slider that falls off the plate. But it's just too early to say.)

Maybe Contreras really just needed the time to get comfortable in the States. Maybe pitching coach Don Cooper helped him figure something out. Maybe it was the spotlight of New York that got to him. Whatever it was, he went from a Cuban bust to the ace on the league's best team. He has a World Series ring and, at this rate, he should probably be preparing some space on the mantle for the Cy Young trophy as well. His numbers for the year: 7-0, 2.62ERA, 1.01WHIP.

Then again, maybe none of us should be so surprised. Well, except Georgie Porgie. The truth is, starting pitchers who go into the AL East usually get hammered and those who leave the AL East usually see a revival. The simplest reason? The lineups are loaded. And it's not even close. Outside of the Rays, every club in the last ten years in the AL East have been good or great offensive teams. The list of names is almost silly. The depth of each lineup is even more silly.

• Yankees: Jeter, Bernie, Posada, Tino, Giambi, Sheffield, Matsui, Soriano, A-Rod. I'm sure I'm forgetting a bunch of others too. All you need to know is that Scott Brosius once drove in 90 runs from the nine spot.
• Red Sox: Mo, Nomar, Nixon, Damon, Manny, Ramirez, Varitek, Valentin, Youkilis. Mo was a MVP, Nomar was a batting champion. Manny and Papi average 40/130.
• Blue Jays: Delgado, Wells, Green, Olerud, Stewart, Cruz Jr., Mondesi, Hillenbrand, Fullmer. This year, they've added Glaus, Overbay, Rios, Molina. Even Tony Batista managed to hit 41HRs one year. And did you know they once had these infielders at the same time: Chris Woodward, Felipe Lopez, Orlando Hudson, Cesar Izturis, Ryan Freel. Gord Ash decided to play Homer Bush and Alex Gonzalez and trade the rest. Nice move.
• Orioles: Ripken, Palmeiro, Anderson, Alomar, Surhoff, Belle, Conine, Mora, Tejada, Gibbons, Lopez, Roberts. While most of these guys weren't offensive forces capable of winning MVPs, they were/are all professional hitters, mostly in their primes.

What does this mean for the pitchers? Higher pitch counts, higher walk rates, higher homerun rates, higher ERAs, and a whole lot of pain. The list of pitchers with good track records who struggle upon moving to the AL East is long and distinguished. Since 1996: Rogers. Wells. Neagle. Weaver. Brown. Vazquez. Pavano. Johnson. And that's just the Yankees! To be fair, here are some others: Fassero. Nomo. Burkett. Kim. Miller. Clement. Beckett. Hamilton. Lidle. Batista. (The Devil Rays were left off the list becaues they've pretty much been irrelevant for their entire existence. On the other hand, the Orioles have not made a significant acquisition for a starting pitcher in the last ten years. Pretty clear why they stink, no?) Granted, this is as unscientific as it gets. I'm only comparing ERA and WHIP for these pitchers before and after they arrivd in the AL East. Good track record is entirely subjective, injuries and age were only taken into account by cursory glance, and some pitchers have pretty insignificant sample sizes.

Nevertheless, let's look at some big names who have had much better success since leaving the AL East, focusing primarily on the last year in the AL East and the two immediate years upon leaving, ERA and WHIP only.

• Kenny Rogers: (1997) 5.65, 1.54; (1998) 3.17, 1.19; (1999) 4.19, 1.41
• Aaron Sele: (1997) 5.37, 1.56; (1998) 4.23, 1.52; (1999) 4.79, 1.53
• Chris Carpenter: (2002) 5.28, 1.58; (2004) 3.46, 1.14; (2005) 2.83, 1.06
• Cory Lidle: (2003) 5.75, 1.43; (2004) 4.90, 1.35; (2005) 4.53, 1.35
• Roger Clemens: (2003) 3.91, 1.21; (2004) 2.98, 1.16; (2005) 1.87, 1.01
• Andy Pettitte: (2003) 4.02, 1.33; (2004) 3.90, 1.23; (2005) 2.39, 1.03
• Jeff Weaver: (2003) 5.99, 1.62; (2004) 4.01, 1.30; (2005) 4.22, 1.17
• Kelvim Escobar: (2003) 4.29, 1.48; (2004) 3.93, 1.29; (2005) 3.02, 1.11
• Derek Lowe: (2004) 5.41, 1.61; (2005) 3.61, 1.25; (2006) 2.83, 1.18
• Pedro Martinez: (2004) 3.90, 1.17; (2005) 2.82, 0.95; (2006) 2.94, 0.90
• Javy Vazquez: (2004) 4.91, 1.29; (2005) 4.42, 1.25; (2006) 4.19, 1.19
• Jose Contreras: (2004) 5.64, 1.41; (2005) 3.61, 1.23; (2006) 2.62, 1.01

If Contreras makes the All-Star team this year, only Weaver, Escobar and Lidle among this list have not.

This effect of the AL East on a pitcher has actually been more pronounced in the last five years, coinciding with the 2002 Henry/Werner/Lucchino/Epstein takeover of the Red Sox. Since 2002, the Red Sox have led the AL in runs every year, while the Yankees have ranked 2nd four times (3rd the other time).

All of this means that what Pedro, Mousse, Halladay, and to a lesser extent, Clemens, have accomplished while pitching in this division is nothing short of amazing (Especially Halladay, since he has to face both the Yankees and Red Sox). You know what Clemens has done, no need to wax poetic about him. Pedro won two Cy Youngs and 4 ERA titles in a span of 5 years between 1999 and 2003. If he hadn't torn his rotator cuff in 2001, you can bet it'd be 3 Cy Youngs and 5 ERA titles. Mussina has won 161 games since 1996, with 5 seasons of an ERA under 3.50 and 5 top-six finishes in the Cy Young voting. He has 232 career wins pitching exclusively in the AL East. Halladay, since reviving his career from Single-A in 2001, is 73-30, for a winning percentage of 70.9%, a mark that's better than Pedro's all-time leading 70.2%. Oh, and he has a Cy Young too. Yikes.

All of this also means I'm not too optimistic about Beckett's career in Boston. Ace? I don't think so. Josh, hope you get there, but you got a tall mountain to climb. Maybe we can trade you for Halladay...