Back from Hiatus
Ever since Pedro's return to Boston, I've managed to watch one baseball game in its near entirety in three weeks. Just my luck that I happened upon the brutal 19 inning Sox affair the Sunday before the All-Star Game. I quit watching in the 13th inning after the Red Sox had already blown two leads, went to shower, then came back to find the teams were still playing. By the time Rudy 93 Octane Seanez was throwing his second (or was it third or fourth) inning, I had already fallen asleep twice. The All-Star Break was much needed. Interleague was getting boring and I'm already marking my calender for the next Yankee-Sox series.
Three things caught my eye during my three week exile from baseball:
1. Emergence of Francisco Liriano as the best pitcher in baseball. Yes, he's better than Johan Santana. If the season ended today, there's no question he's the AL ROY over Papelbon and Verlander. Surprisingly, Johjima doesn't even enter the conversation. It'd be a toss up between him and Johan for AL Cy Young. AL MVP? Strangely enough, it's either Papelbon or Papi right now. But back to Liriano. Hard to imagine he was the throw-in in the AJ to the Giants deal. That trade might be worse than the Heathcliff Slocumb for Tek and Lowe deal that set the Mariners 5 years back. Only injuries can hold back Liriano.
2. Speaking of bad trades, the Reds made one of the worst trades I can remember yesterday. The headline wrote that they had sent Kearns, Lopez and Wagner for Majewski, Bray, Watson, and Clayton. I was sure that the Lopez in question was someone like Aquilino or Luis, basically career Quad-A players who had just ben roster filler on the Reds. Nope, it was Felipe. Felipe Lopez? Are you kidding me? This guy was about to be traded for Jose Reyes in our keeper league as recently as May. This is easily one of the top three worst trades I can remember off the top of my head. I'd have to say this was worse than Foulke and cash for Koch. In fact much worse. Keith Law does a good job of ripping Krivsky a new pooper, while the underrated Jonah Keri stirs up fond memories of incompetent GM's. And not just in 20/20 hindsight, this is one of those bad trades that just get worse over time.
Maybe Kearns and Lopez simply weren't in the plans of the Reds for this season and beyond, but that's besides the point. Kearns and Lopez were two relatively young, above average, everyday position players and, as such, valuable commodities. The first point is you don't trade valuable commodities for nearly worthless ones because of a thing called opportunity cost. You don't think the Red Sox would have been willing to give up Delcarmen or Hansen for a guy like Lopez this coming offseason? And throw in the fact that Trot Nixon is a free agent, the Sox would have been in the market for a RF as well. The second point is one that a shocking majority of GMs have failed to figure out: If the goal is the World Series (playoff appearances and division titles, while gravy, is more or less meaningless and forgotten three years from now) and you're not building to win today, you must necessarily be building to win tomorrow. In a year when the Reds will only be striving to win an pathetically weak NL Wildcard by finishing 5 games above .500 and the team has no realistic possibilities of winning the World Series, let alone the NL pennant, Krivsky has failed to do either. He probably set the franchise back two or three years.
Tangent #1: Jim Bowden has just won the executive of the year. In a span of 9 months, assuming conservatively, Soriano fetches a top prospect and an average major leaguer at the deadline, he will have turned Majewski and Wilkerson into an above average one-third of his starting lineup. They should be poised to contend just as the Mets get older and trail off as Glavine, Pedro, and Delgado ride off into the sunset.
Tangent #2: Speaking of bad GMs, how did Bob Melvin get a contract extension from the D'Backs? What has he done since he's been there? Is that team any better than it was two years ago? Granted, they have a ton of prospects, but they're still awful in an awful division. Absurd.
3. Baseball betting is unprofitable. Not extremely unprofitable, but the 5% juice on every wager is mighty tough to beat in the long run. I'll have a manifesto of my results shortly, as soon as I'm smart enough to conclude this awry experiment by withdrawing all my money from Bodog.
Three things caught my eye during my three week exile from baseball:
1. Emergence of Francisco Liriano as the best pitcher in baseball. Yes, he's better than Johan Santana. If the season ended today, there's no question he's the AL ROY over Papelbon and Verlander. Surprisingly, Johjima doesn't even enter the conversation. It'd be a toss up between him and Johan for AL Cy Young. AL MVP? Strangely enough, it's either Papelbon or Papi right now. But back to Liriano. Hard to imagine he was the throw-in in the AJ to the Giants deal. That trade might be worse than the Heathcliff Slocumb for Tek and Lowe deal that set the Mariners 5 years back. Only injuries can hold back Liriano.
2. Speaking of bad trades, the Reds made one of the worst trades I can remember yesterday. The headline wrote that they had sent Kearns, Lopez and Wagner for Majewski, Bray, Watson, and Clayton. I was sure that the Lopez in question was someone like Aquilino or Luis, basically career Quad-A players who had just ben roster filler on the Reds. Nope, it was Felipe. Felipe Lopez? Are you kidding me? This guy was about to be traded for Jose Reyes in our keeper league as recently as May. This is easily one of the top three worst trades I can remember off the top of my head. I'd have to say this was worse than Foulke and cash for Koch. In fact much worse. Keith Law does a good job of ripping Krivsky a new pooper, while the underrated Jonah Keri stirs up fond memories of incompetent GM's. And not just in 20/20 hindsight, this is one of those bad trades that just get worse over time.
Maybe Kearns and Lopez simply weren't in the plans of the Reds for this season and beyond, but that's besides the point. Kearns and Lopez were two relatively young, above average, everyday position players and, as such, valuable commodities. The first point is you don't trade valuable commodities for nearly worthless ones because of a thing called opportunity cost. You don't think the Red Sox would have been willing to give up Delcarmen or Hansen for a guy like Lopez this coming offseason? And throw in the fact that Trot Nixon is a free agent, the Sox would have been in the market for a RF as well. The second point is one that a shocking majority of GMs have failed to figure out: If the goal is the World Series (playoff appearances and division titles, while gravy, is more or less meaningless and forgotten three years from now) and you're not building to win today, you must necessarily be building to win tomorrow. In a year when the Reds will only be striving to win an pathetically weak NL Wildcard by finishing 5 games above .500 and the team has no realistic possibilities of winning the World Series, let alone the NL pennant, Krivsky has failed to do either. He probably set the franchise back two or three years.
Tangent #1: Jim Bowden has just won the executive of the year. In a span of 9 months, assuming conservatively, Soriano fetches a top prospect and an average major leaguer at the deadline, he will have turned Majewski and Wilkerson into an above average one-third of his starting lineup. They should be poised to contend just as the Mets get older and trail off as Glavine, Pedro, and Delgado ride off into the sunset.
Tangent #2: Speaking of bad GMs, how did Bob Melvin get a contract extension from the D'Backs? What has he done since he's been there? Is that team any better than it was two years ago? Granted, they have a ton of prospects, but they're still awful in an awful division. Absurd.
3. Baseball betting is unprofitable. Not extremely unprofitable, but the 5% juice on every wager is mighty tough to beat in the long run. I'll have a manifesto of my results shortly, as soon as I'm smart enough to conclude this awry experiment by withdrawing all my money from Bodog.
posted by number 2 at 7/14/2006 05:07:00 PM
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