Young Guns, Update
Back in May, the number of quality young starters in their first or second year in the league was impressive. The list back then was headed by Kazmir, Liriano, and Anthony Reyes. Now in the middle of July, the majority on that list still enjoying good success, and two of them are actually leading their respective leagues in ERA (Josh Johnson is 1.2 innings short of qualifying for the ERA title as of tonight). Incredible. Here's a rundown of how that original list of eleven is doing:
Boof Bonser
2-2, 35.2Ip, 27K, 5.30ERA, 1.46WHIP
Didn't pitch that bad, but currently back in the minors. The 27-12 K-BB ratio isn't bad, but the 9 HRs allowed were.
Taylor Buchholz
6-7, 101.2IP, 71K, 5.31ERA, 1.17WHIP
Started the year on fire, had a stretch of three bad starts, then found his groove again. His ERA is very high for such a good WHIP. More than 50% of his hits and walks allowed have come around to score, an astounding figure. It could be bad luck, bad mechanics from the stretch, or bad makeup. Too soon to tell. The 17 gopherballs allowed contributes to a lot of it.
Matt Cain
6-6, 97.1IP, 85K, 4.90ERA, 1.36WHIP
Has been Jekyll and Hyde all year, as likely to throw a one-hitters as he is to not last until the 5th. The good sign is that after a bullpen demotion to work on mechanics, he has lowered his ERA from 7.04 on May 10. The other piece of good news is that he's only allowed one HR since then too. He needs to learn to manage his pitch counts a lot better.
Scott Kazmir
10-7, 121.2IP, 129K, 3.40ERA, 1.32WHIP
He's now a bona fide ace. Having that record in the brutal AL East on that team is outstanding. If he were still in New York, they'd put him on a cereal box by now. He and Liriano will have to carry me to the overs with #1.
Anthony Reyes
2-3, 40.0IP, 31K, 3.83ERA, 1.13WHIP
A teammate of Prior in college, which one do you think the Cubs would rather have right now? He can throw all of his pitches and seems pretty bright in the head. Somehow reminds me of Mussina way back when he was young: a smart, polished college pitcher with a decent fastball and good command.
Jeff Francis
7-8, 115.1, 76K, 3.98ERA, 1.27WHIP
Looked like another Rockie pitcher bust a year ago, but has improved a lot this year. Haven't seen him pitch much, but has managed to allow only 101 hits this year. I don't know if he can maintain that without striking out more guys. But the Rox must be ecstatic with their quadtuplets of Francis, Cook, Jennings, and Kim.
Josh Johnson
8-5, 90.2IP, 80K, 2.48ERA, 1.31WHIP
Has one of the five best curveballs in the NL this year. Projects as an ace if he can lower his walks a little. The Marlins staff should be pretty awesome next year if they manage to keep Dontrelle.
Zach Duke
6-8, 122.1IP, 70K, 5.15ERA, 1.60WHIP
Not looing so hot after a brilliant rookie year. Gary Gillette has more on the struggles of Duke, Oliver Perez, and Paul Maholm. Incidentally, Tom Gorzelanny has gotten shelled in his last two starts.
Mike O'Connor
3-6, 80.1IP, 50K, 4.59ERA, 1.34WHIP
After not allowing more than 3 earned runs in his first 9 starts and a total of 4 HRs, has allowed 5 earned runs and 2 HRs in each of his last three. He has only mediocre stuff, but Mark Redman has been around a long time as well.
Francisco Liriano
11-2, 102.0IP, 115K, 1.94ERA, 0.95WHIP
Er...
Robinson Tejeda
1-3, 19.1IP, 15K, 9.78ERA, 2.17WHIP
Serious control issues got him banished. Nothing currently suggests he'll be more than a fringe reliever if and when he returns to the majors.
These results are mighty impressive. Even more impressive is that another batch of pitchers have come on strong. Their numbers have increased to a point where I do not recall a year in which so many good young pitching prospects are immediately blossoming into top of the rotation starters and/or dominant relievers. This time I'm going to put down another eleven. Some of them should have made the list to begin, but I only focused on starters who had pitched that particular weekend. Not a smart idea for posterity's sake. Only rookies are invited to this party. In order of impressiveness, with an emphasis on the first three:
Jonathan Papelbon
49.0IP, 49K, 0.55ERA, 0.71WHIP, 28 saves
I'm beginning to wonder if the Sox are better off keeping him as the closer.
Justin Verlander
11-4(T-2nd in AL), 117.2IP, 75K, 2.83ERA (3rd in AL), 1.14WHIP
Any other year, he's a unanimous ROY. This year, I doubt he gets one first place vote. Okay, maybe one from the local sportswriters. But then there's his teammate...
Joel Zumaya
45.1IP, 56K, 2.58ERA, 1.15WHIP, 21 holds (1st in AL)
The Tigers and Leyland weren't kidding when they said in spring training Verlander and Zumaya were going to be major contributors this year. Little Z has only blown three leads this year.
Three others that should be in the majors for good, near the top of their rotations:
Jon Lester
5-0, 2.38ERA, 1.43WHIP
Jered Weaver
6-0, 1.12 ERA, 0.74WHIP
Chad Billingsley
1-2, 3.66ERA, 1.73WHIP
The rest of the pack, all with very good potential, all things considering:
Ricky Nolasco
Mike Pelfrey
Scott Olsen
Cole Hamels
Elizardo Ramirez
Boof Bonser
2-2, 35.2Ip, 27K, 5.30ERA, 1.46WHIP
Didn't pitch that bad, but currently back in the minors. The 27-12 K-BB ratio isn't bad, but the 9 HRs allowed were.
Taylor Buchholz
6-7, 101.2IP, 71K, 5.31ERA, 1.17WHIP
Started the year on fire, had a stretch of three bad starts, then found his groove again. His ERA is very high for such a good WHIP. More than 50% of his hits and walks allowed have come around to score, an astounding figure. It could be bad luck, bad mechanics from the stretch, or bad makeup. Too soon to tell. The 17 gopherballs allowed contributes to a lot of it.
Matt Cain
6-6, 97.1IP, 85K, 4.90ERA, 1.36WHIP
Has been Jekyll and Hyde all year, as likely to throw a one-hitters as he is to not last until the 5th. The good sign is that after a bullpen demotion to work on mechanics, he has lowered his ERA from 7.04 on May 10. The other piece of good news is that he's only allowed one HR since then too. He needs to learn to manage his pitch counts a lot better.
Scott Kazmir
10-7, 121.2IP, 129K, 3.40ERA, 1.32WHIP
He's now a bona fide ace. Having that record in the brutal AL East on that team is outstanding. If he were still in New York, they'd put him on a cereal box by now. He and Liriano will have to carry me to the overs with #1.
Anthony Reyes
2-3, 40.0IP, 31K, 3.83ERA, 1.13WHIP
A teammate of Prior in college, which one do you think the Cubs would rather have right now? He can throw all of his pitches and seems pretty bright in the head. Somehow reminds me of Mussina way back when he was young: a smart, polished college pitcher with a decent fastball and good command.
Jeff Francis
7-8, 115.1, 76K, 3.98ERA, 1.27WHIP
Looked like another Rockie pitcher bust a year ago, but has improved a lot this year. Haven't seen him pitch much, but has managed to allow only 101 hits this year. I don't know if he can maintain that without striking out more guys. But the Rox must be ecstatic with their quadtuplets of Francis, Cook, Jennings, and Kim.
Josh Johnson
8-5, 90.2IP, 80K, 2.48ERA, 1.31WHIP
Has one of the five best curveballs in the NL this year. Projects as an ace if he can lower his walks a little. The Marlins staff should be pretty awesome next year if they manage to keep Dontrelle.
Zach Duke
6-8, 122.1IP, 70K, 5.15ERA, 1.60WHIP
Not looing so hot after a brilliant rookie year. Gary Gillette has more on the struggles of Duke, Oliver Perez, and Paul Maholm. Incidentally, Tom Gorzelanny has gotten shelled in his last two starts.
Mike O'Connor
3-6, 80.1IP, 50K, 4.59ERA, 1.34WHIP
After not allowing more than 3 earned runs in his first 9 starts and a total of 4 HRs, has allowed 5 earned runs and 2 HRs in each of his last three. He has only mediocre stuff, but Mark Redman has been around a long time as well.
Francisco Liriano
11-2, 102.0IP, 115K, 1.94ERA, 0.95WHIP
Er...
Robinson Tejeda
1-3, 19.1IP, 15K, 9.78ERA, 2.17WHIP
Serious control issues got him banished. Nothing currently suggests he'll be more than a fringe reliever if and when he returns to the majors.
These results are mighty impressive. Even more impressive is that another batch of pitchers have come on strong. Their numbers have increased to a point where I do not recall a year in which so many good young pitching prospects are immediately blossoming into top of the rotation starters and/or dominant relievers. This time I'm going to put down another eleven. Some of them should have made the list to begin, but I only focused on starters who had pitched that particular weekend. Not a smart idea for posterity's sake. Only rookies are invited to this party. In order of impressiveness, with an emphasis on the first three:
Jonathan Papelbon
49.0IP, 49K, 0.55ERA, 0.71WHIP, 28 saves
I'm beginning to wonder if the Sox are better off keeping him as the closer.
Justin Verlander
11-4(T-2nd in AL), 117.2IP, 75K, 2.83ERA (3rd in AL), 1.14WHIP
Any other year, he's a unanimous ROY. This year, I doubt he gets one first place vote. Okay, maybe one from the local sportswriters. But then there's his teammate...
Joel Zumaya
45.1IP, 56K, 2.58ERA, 1.15WHIP, 21 holds (1st in AL)
The Tigers and Leyland weren't kidding when they said in spring training Verlander and Zumaya were going to be major contributors this year. Little Z has only blown three leads this year.
Three others that should be in the majors for good, near the top of their rotations:
Jon Lester
5-0, 2.38ERA, 1.43WHIP
Jered Weaver
6-0, 1.12 ERA, 0.74WHIP
Chad Billingsley
1-2, 3.66ERA, 1.73WHIP
The rest of the pack, all with very good potential, all things considering:
Ricky Nolasco
Mike Pelfrey
Scott Olsen
Cole Hamels
Elizardo Ramirez
posted by number 2 at 7/18/2006 10:21:00 PM
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